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Average sale prices of single-family homes in 20 major metropolitan areas fell 3.1% from a year ago, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index released Tuesday.

“January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight for the near future,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at rating firm Standard & Poor’s. “The housing-market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery.…At worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing.” Only two cities—San Diego and Washington—recorded price increases year over year.

The declines in the price index, which only gauges homes that have been sold before and excludes new construction, set a tone for a spring market with buyers firmly in control. The silver lining, economists said, is that affordability and low rates might spur more activity this spring than last year, which relied on a federal tax credit to stimulate demand. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage inched up last week to 4.81%; a year ago, it was 4.99%, according to mortgage firm Freddie Mac.

Pending home sales—those with purchase contracts signed—increased 2.1% last month, with some regions showing more strength than others, the National Association of Realtors reported this week. Mortgage applications also have been on the rise for much of March.

After more than 30 years of renting, Karen and Bernie Donovan have saved $16,500 and hope to buy a home in Florida soon. Because her husband’s employment as an iron worker is erratic—he is currently looking for work—and she works part time at a T-shirt company and is trying to start a popcorn business, Mrs. Donovan doubts they would qualify for a conventional loan, despite the down payment they can make. They plan to cash out of some investments to buy.

“It’s our time now,” Ms. Donovan said. “We want to find the deal of a lifetime.”

Sellers, meanwhile, are finding they must lower prices to meet buyers’ expectations and compete with distressed sales, which represent more than a third of all transactions.

For nearly a year, Jessica Strabley of Atlanta has been trying to sell her two-bedroom condominium. Only two prospective buyers have toured the unit, which she bought in August 2008 for $179,000. Last month, she cut the price for a fourth time to $175,000.

“I think it’s a great time to buy if you’re in the position to buy,” said Ms. Strabley, 31 years old, who works in telecommunications. “If you’re trying to sell, it’s not a good position to be in. Everyone that I know has pretty much either decided not to sell because they can’t take the loss or they’ve ended up taking a loss.”

According to the index, Atlanta-area prices fell 7% in January compared with last year.

Meanwhile, regulators proposed new mortgage-lending rules on Tuesday that could raise borrowing costs or limit access to loans for home buyers who can’t qualify for a loan or insurance from government-backed firms and federal agencies.

At the same time, those government entities are boosting fees that they charge borrowers to protect against the risk of future defaults.

“They’re really nailing consumers with higher fees,” said Anthony Sanders, a real-estate finance professor at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. “From a fiscal-soundness perspective, that makes sense, but it’s not another good piece of news for trying to revive the housing market.”

Such pressures—and a still-shaky labor market—affect buyers’ psychology and confidence in real estate and the overall economy, Mr. Sanders said.

“Prices are low, rates have been low. We have set up what in normal times would be a housing boom,” he said. “Well, we already went through the boom.”

The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20-city home price index, a broad gauge of U.S. home prices, posted a 1% drop in January from a month earlier and fell 3.1% from a year earlier, as the housing market faced a new round of trouble.

Nineteen of 20 cities in the index posted month-to-month declines in November — just Washington, D.C. notched an increase. On a seasonally adjusted basis, which aims to take into account the slower winter selling season, eight cities — Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Washington — posted monthly increases.

Only two areas of the U.S. — San Diego and Washington — posted year-over-year gains. Eleven markets — Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle and Tampa — hit their lowest points since home values started dropping more than four years ago, pushing prices in those areas below the lows seen in most regions in spring 2009. Average home prices in Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit and Las Vegas are now below January 2000 levels.

“The enormous supply overhang of existing homes (particularly factoring in all those in foreclosure or soon to be) promises to keep pressure on prices for some time,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. “From a longer-term perspective, it is important to keep in mind that in the seven years leading up to the peak in July 2006, the nonseasonally adjusted national 20 city home price index jumped by 155% (126 index points)… So far, this index has dropped by 32% (66 index points) in the 55 months since the peak.”

Home Prices, by Metro Area

Below, see data from the 20 metro areas Case-Shiller tracks, sortable by name, level, monthly change and year-over-year change — just click the column headers to re-sort. The Case Shiller indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000. So a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the metro market.

Sources: Standard & Poor’s and FiservData

While no direct correlation was made to the harsh winter temperatures, the research survey indicated a substantial increase in the number of homebuyers seeking a vacation home purchase, an increase of 800 percent year-over-year. This dynamic trend is further supported by an increase in the number of buyers describing their transition as a geographic relocation, now 40 percent. Over the three-year-period of the annual research study, a continuous trend towards smaller homes has been noted with the most popular size home now being 1,700 to 2,299 sq. ft. Homes ranging from 1,000 to 1,699 sq. ft. saw an increase of 5 percent in interest levels from 2010 to 2011.

The Cotton Report also shows signs that pricing levels have adjusted to meet consumer expectations. In 2009, respondents indicated the need for a 50 percent reduction in order to re-enter the market. In the 2011 survey, this level of price reduction has changed dramatically with the median response being a 20 percent reduction. This trend was also reflected in the consumer’s timeline to purchase. In 2011, 25 percent of the respondents reported they would be purchasing within six months, an increase from just 4 percent at the same time last year.

The annual consumer report is compiled by Cotton & Company, a 28-year-old firm specializing in the marketing and sales of residential real estate throughout the United States and the Caribbean. Stephann Cotton, the firm’s President, notes “The adjustment of pricing to realistic levels has brought buyers and sellers closer together. These price adjustments combined with the brutal winter up north have resulted in strong sales in many of our resort residential properties.”

While questions remain in the US mortgage market about the future of the 30-year-mortgage, the survey indicates that 36 percent of the respondents plan to utilize a 30-year-mortgage to make their purchase. An equal 36 percent are cash buyers with 21 percent indicating plans for a 15-year-mortgage.

“One of the most dramatic changes in buyer psychology was seen in the responses from those who are uninterested in a real estate purchase,” says Laurie Andrews, Cotton & Company’s COO. In 2010, 96 percent of these respondents cited economic conditions or political instability as the reason for not purchasing. In 2011, this number was cut in half with 46 percent of the respondents now indicating that they have no desire to move. “These results show buyers are beginning to separate the home buying process from the economic instability.”

On the same day, the lowest mortgage rates offered by lenders on the LendingTree network were 4.50 percent (4.70 percent APR) for a 30-year fixed mortgage, 3.75 percent (3.99 percent APR) for a 15-year fixed mortgage and 3.00 percent (3.26 percent APR) for a 5/1 ARM.

“Declines in existing and new home sales announced this week indicate that the housing market is still in intensive care,” says Cameron Findlay, LendingTree Chief Economist. “Low mortgage rates are offering some relief but home sales volume, home prices and unemployment are a continued drag on housing’s recovery. The latest data on average loan-to-value ratio by state and percent of homeowners with negative equity highlights the concern that there is no panacea to the economy’s ailments.”

March 25, 2011

RISMEDIA